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IMT Novi Beograd vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

IMT Novi Beograd

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Mladost Lucani

PPG 1.34 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-110.2%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.5%1-112.8%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-18.0%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.3%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 60.6% 1.65 -27.1%

Draw 26.9% 30.3% 3.30 -6.7%

Away win 28.9% 20.0% 5.00 +26.7%

Over 2.5 43.1% 46.5% 2.15 -7.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 36.4% 52.4% 1.91 -30.5%

Away O1.5 22.7% 22.2% 4.50 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–0✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IMT Novi Beograd1.3

Mladost Lucani0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD · PPG 1.63

MLADOST LUCANI · PPG 1.34

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

IMT Novi Beograd (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -27.1%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.7%

Mladost Lucani (A) 28.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

IMT Novi Beograd face Mladost Lucani in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IMT Novi Beograd a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Mladost Lucani 29%, so IMT Novi Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.8 for Mladost Lucani (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IMT Novi Beograd are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.34 for Mladost Lucani. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.2%. This match finished 2-0.

IMT Novi Beograd vs Mladost Lucani Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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