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IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnicki NIS Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 17:00

IMT Novi Beograd

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Radnicki NIS

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+16.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-16.8%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-111.2%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.2%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.8%3-15.0%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 45.5% 2.20 +16.6%

Draw 24.9% 33.9% 2.95 -15.9%

Away win 22.1% 29.9% 3.35 -15.6%

Over 2.5 47.4% 45.5% 2.20 +4.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 25.3% 3.95 +7.3%

BTTS 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Home O1.5 47.2% 42.6% 2.35 +10.9%

Away O1.5 17.2% 31.3% 3.20 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 11.2%

#3 2–0 12.6%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IMT Novi Beograd1.6

Radnicki NIS0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IMT NOVI BEOGRAD · PPG 1.73

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 1.19

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

IMT Novi Beograd (H) 53.0%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.6%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -15.9%

Radnicki NIS (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IMT Novi Beograd face Radnicki NIS in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IMT Novi Beograd a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Radnicki NIS 22%, so IMT Novi Beograd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for IMT Novi Beograd and 0.7 for Radnicki NIS (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IMT Novi Beograd are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.19 for Radnicki NIS. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.6%.

IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnicki NIS Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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