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Cukaricki vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Cukaricki

PPG 1.53 · HOME

UPCOMING

OFK Beograd

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.4%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.2%1-111.2%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.8%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 45.9% 2.18 +14.7%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 23.1% 33.6% 2.98 -18.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 52.6% 1.90 +2.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 31.3% 3.20 +1.8%

BTTS 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Home O1.5 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Away O1.5 29.2% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -28.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cukaricki1.7

OFK Beograd1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.53

OFK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.61

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cukaricki (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV +14.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

OFK Beograd (A) 23.1%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cukaricki face OFK Beograd in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cukaricki a 53% chance, the draw 24% and OFK Beograd 23%, so Cukaricki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cukaricki and 1.0 for OFK Beograd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cukaricki are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.61 for OFK Beograd. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.9%.

Cukaricki vs OFK Beograd Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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