Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar

Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:00

Radnik Surdulica

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 49.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-19.0%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.5%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.0%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-11.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 52.4% 1.91 -4.9%

Draw 26.6% 32.3% 3.10 -10.5%

Away win 23.7% 27.0% 3.70 -7.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Over 3.5 26.9% 28.6% 3.50 -3.5%

BTTS 49.1% 55.6% 1.80 -11.6%

Home O1.5 38.6% 50.0% 2.00 -22.8%

Away O1.5 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.6%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radnik Surdulica1.4

Novi Pazar0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RADNIK SURDULICA · PPG 1.69

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Radnik Surdulica (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -4.9%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.5%

Novi Pazar (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radnik Surdulica face Novi Pazar in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Novi Pazar 24%, so Radnik Surdulica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Radnik Surdulica and 0.8 for Novi Pazar (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radnik Surdulica are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.08 for Novi Pazar. This match finished 1-0.

Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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