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Novi Pazar vs Vojvodina Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:00

Novi Pazar

PPG 1.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vojvodina

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-110.2%0-28.1%0-34.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.3%2-16.8%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 32.3% 3.10 -3.9%

Draw 26.8% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Away win 42.2% 48.8% 2.05 -13.5%

Over 2.5 52.1% 57.1% 1.75 -8.8%

Over 3.5 30.8% 33.9% 2.95 -9.1%

BTTS 54.4% 61.7% 1.62 -11.9%

Home O1.5 30.3% 38.5% 2.60 -21.2%

Away O1.5 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -33.2%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.4%

A 42% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novi Pazar1.2

Vojvodina1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVI PAZAR · PPG 1.55

VOJVODINA · PPG 1.49

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Novi Pazar (H) 31.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -3.9%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

Vojvodina (A) 42.2%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novi Pazar face Vojvodina in Serbia - Super Liga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novi Pazar a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Vojvodina 42%, so Vojvodina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Novi Pazar and 1.6 for Vojvodina (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novi Pazar are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.49 for Vojvodina. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.0%.

Novi Pazar vs Vojvodina Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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