League Two

SCOTLAND · 15 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 2 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 15 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

46.7%

1X2

7/15

53.3%

O/U 2.5

8/15

33.3%

BTTS

5/15

40.0%

Exact score

6/15

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

53.3%

Hit rate

8/15

1.58

Avg odds

-16.7%

ROI

-2.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.63 · -17.5% ROI

HOME WIN · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.55 · +16.3% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.48 · -58.3% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

67%

Hit

-1.7%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-25.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-15.8%

ROI

Match log

15 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 5 PICKS · 2 HIT · 3 MISS

2 MAY Stirling Albion vs Spartans BTTS -1% 2–2 HIT 2 MAY Elgin City vs Stranraer BTTS -6% 0–1 MISS 2 MAY Annan Athletic vs Forfar Athletic BTTS -4% 1–1 HIT 2 MAY Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton BTTS +5% 5–0 MISS 2 MAY East Kilbride vs Clyde BTTS -7% 5–0 MISS

April 2026 // 10 PICKS · 6 HIT · 4 MISS

25 APR Forfar Athletic vs Edinburgh City Home -28% 4–0 HIT 25 APR Clyde vs Annan Athletic Home +13% 3–1 HIT 25 APR Dumbarton vs East Kilbride Over 2.5 -1% 0–1 MISS 25 APR Spartans vs Elgin City Home -7% 1–1 MISS 25 APR Stranraer vs Stirling Albion BTTS -4% 1–1 HIT 18 APR Annan Athletic vs Spartans Over 2.5 +3% 0–2 MISS 18 APR Stranraer vs Forfar Athletic BTTS -12% 0–1 MISS 18 APR Stirling Albion vs Elgin City BTTS -9% 2–2 HIT 18 APR East Kilbride vs Edinburgh City Over 2.5 -7% 4–0 HIT 18 APR Clyde vs Dumbarton Home -2% 2–0 HIT