Today / Scotland - League Two / Stranraer vs Forfar Athletic

Stranraer vs Forfar Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Stranraer

PPG 1.31 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Forfar Athletic

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-19.3%0-25.5%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.7%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.3%2-18.6%2-25.1%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.3%3-13.9%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 44.4% 2.25 -7.5%

Draw 26.6% 33.3% 3.00 -20.2%

Away win 32.3% 33.3% 3.00 -3.1%

Over 2.5 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Over 3.5 25.2% 29.0% 3.45 -13.1%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 0–1✓ 9.3%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stranraer1.4

Forfar Athletic1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STRANRAER · PPG 1.31

FORFAR ATHLETIC · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Stranraer (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.5%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -20.2%

Forfar Athletic (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stranraer face Forfar Athletic in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stranraer a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Forfar Athletic 32%, so Stranraer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Stranraer and 1.2 for Forfar Athletic (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stranraer are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.88 for Forfar Athletic. This match finished 0-1.

Stranraer vs Forfar Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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