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Stranraer vs Stirling Albion Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Stranraer

PPG 1.24 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Stirling Albion

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.9%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.5%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 71.4% 1.40 -29.3%

Draw 24.3% 23.8% 4.20 +2.1%

Away win 25.2% 14.3% 7.00 +76.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Over 3.5 30.4% 39.2% 2.55 -22.5%

BTTS 54.4% 56.5% 1.77 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stranraer1.7

Stirling Albion1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STRANRAER · PPG 1.24

STIRLING ALBION · PPG 1.18

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.24), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Stranraer (H) 50.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -29.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.1%

Stirling Albion (A) 25.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +76.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stranraer face Stirling Albion in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stranraer a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Stirling Albion 25%, so Stranraer are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stranraer and 1.1 for Stirling Albion (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stranraer are averaging 1.24 points per game versus 1.18 for Stirling Albion. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +76.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Stranraer vs Stirling Albion Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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