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Stirling Albion vs Elgin City Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Stirling Albion

PPG 0.94 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elgin City

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.3%0-26.9%0-33.8%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.7%1-111.1%1-29.2%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-17.4%2-26.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.0%3-13.3%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 25.3% 3.95 +22.9%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.0%

Away win 45.0% 57.8% 1.73 -22.1%

Over 2.5 57.6% 67.6% 1.48 -14.8%

Over 3.5 35.2% 45.5% 2.20 -22.6%

BTTS 59.8% 65.4% 1.53 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.8%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 8.3%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling Albion1.3

Elgin City1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING ALBION · PPG 0.94

ELGIN CITY · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Stirling Albion (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +22.9%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.0%

Elgin City (A) 45.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling Albion face Elgin City in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling Albion a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Elgin City 45%, so Elgin City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stirling Albion and 1.7 for Elgin City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling Albion are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 0.94 for Elgin City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Stirling Albion vs Elgin City Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League Two Predictions