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Dumbarton vs East Kilbride Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Dumbarton

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

East Kilbride

PPG 1.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.3%0-26.8%0-34.8%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.1%1-18.8%1-29.4%1-36.7%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.8%2-16.0%2-26.5%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 19.6% 5.10 +24.9%

Draw 20.7% 23.8% 4.20 -13.1%

Away win 54.8% 66.7% 1.50 -17.8%

Over 2.5 68.2% 69.0% 1.45 -1.1%

Over 3.5 46.7% 47.6% 2.10 -1.9%

BTTS 66.0% 66.7% 1.50 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.0%

A 55% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 0–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dumbarton1.4

East Kilbride2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 46.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DUMBARTON · PPG 1.47

EAST KILBRIDE · PPG 1.76

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.76)

Win probability 1X2

Dumbarton (H) 24.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +24.9%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -13.1%

East Kilbride (A) 54.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dumbarton face East Kilbride in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dumbarton a 25% chance, the draw 21% and East Kilbride 55%, so East Kilbride are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dumbarton and 2.1 for East Kilbride (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dumbarton are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.76 for East Kilbride. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Dumbarton vs East Kilbride Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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