Dumbarton vs East Kilbride Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Scotland - League Two Regular Season - 35 Dumbarton Football Stadium· Dumbarton Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Dumbarton PPG 1.47

0-1 MISS

East Kilbride PPG 1.76

Home· +24.9% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dumbarton face East Kilbride in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dumbarton a 25% chance, the draw 21% and East Kilbride 55%, so East Kilbride are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dumbarton and 2.1 for East Kilbride (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dumbarton are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.76 for East Kilbride. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 24.5%

Odds: 5.10 EV: +24.9%

Draw 20.7%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -13.1%

Away 54.8%

Odds: 1.50 EV: -17.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.2% Odds: 1.45 -1.1%

Over 3.5 46.7% Odds: 2.10 -1.9%

BTTS 66.0% Odds: 1.50 -1.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dumbarton

1.38

East Kilbride

2.14

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -1.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -1.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+24.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 53%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 40%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away GOOD (1.76)