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Elgin City vs Stranraer Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Elgin City

PPG 1.59 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stranraer

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.9%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.9%1-111.8%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.3%3-14.4%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 42.0% 2.38 -6.7%

Draw 28.6% 29.0% 3.45 -1.3%

Away win 32.2% 38.5% 2.60 -16.3%

Over 2.5 53.6% 56.5% 1.77 -5.1%

Over 3.5 31.3% 33.9% 2.95 -7.7%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.8%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elgin City1.5

Stranraer1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ELGIN CITY · PPG 1.59

STRANRAER · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Elgin City (H) 39.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -6.7%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.3%

Stranraer (A) 32.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elgin City face Stranraer in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elgin City a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Stranraer 32%, so Elgin City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Elgin City and 1.3 for Stranraer (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elgin City are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.29 for Stranraer. This match finished 0-1.

Elgin City vs Stranraer Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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