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Spartans vs Elgin City Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Spartans

PPG 1.76 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Elgin City

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.6%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-110.5%1-25.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.5%3-16.2%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 63.7% 1.57 -7.2%

Draw 22.2% 26.0% 3.85 -14.5%

Away win 18.7% 20.8% 4.80 -10.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 37.0% 2.70 -14.7%

BTTS 52.1% 59.9% 1.67 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 59% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.0%

#2 1–1✓ 10.5%

#3 2–0 10.4%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartans1.9

Elgin City1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTANS · PPG 1.76

ELGIN CITY · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.76) vs P(Home)=59.1%

Win probability 1X2

Spartans (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -7.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -14.5%

Elgin City (A) 18.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartans face Elgin City in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartans a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Elgin City 19%, so Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Spartans and 1.0 for Elgin City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartans are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 0.94 for Elgin City. This match finished 1-1.

Spartans vs Elgin City Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League Two Predictions