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East Kilbride vs Edinburgh City Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

East Kilbride

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Edinburgh City

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 74.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.4%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.7%1-16.5%1-23.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.8%2-18.8%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-07.2%3-18.1%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-110.8%4+-26.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.2% 90.9% 1.10 -21.7%

Draw 15.6% 13.2% 7.60 +18.6%

Away win 13.2% 6.3% 16.00 +111.2%

Over 2.5 74.2% 80.0% 1.25 -7.2%

Over 3.5 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

BTTS 63.3% 51.3% 1.95 +23.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.3%

H 71% / xG 2.7-1.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–0 7.2%

#5 1–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

East Kilbride2.7

Edinburgh City1.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.2% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

EAST KILBRIDE · PPG 1.88

EDINBURGH CITY · PPG 1.56

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

East Kilbride (H) 71.2%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -21.7%

Draw 15.6%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +18.6%

Edinburgh City (A) 13.2%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +111.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

East Kilbride face Edinburgh City in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Kilbride a 71% chance, the draw 16% and Edinburgh City 13%, so East Kilbride are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for East Kilbride and 1.1 for Edinburgh City (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Kilbride are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.56 for Edinburgh City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +111.2%. This match finished 4-0.

East Kilbride vs Edinburgh City Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League Two Predictions