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Annan Athletic vs Spartans Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Annan Athletic

PPG 1.69 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Spartans

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-19.0%0-28.5%0-35.3%0-4+3.9%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.8%1-36.2%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.2%2-16.0%2-25.7%2-33.6%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.2%3-12.3%3-22.2%3-31.4%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 35.1% 2.85 -33.9%

Draw 22.4% 29.9% 3.35 -25.0%

Away win 54.5% 44.4% 2.25 +22.6%

Over 2.5 58.8% 57.1% 1.75 +2.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

BTTS 58.3% 63.7% 1.57 -8.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.3%

A 55% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 9.0%

#4 0–2✓ 8.5%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Annan Athletic1.2

Spartans1.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANNAN ATHLETIC · PPG 1.69

SPARTANS · PPG 1.81

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.69), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Annan Athletic (H) 23.2%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -33.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -25.0%

Spartans (A) 54.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +22.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Annan Athletic face Spartans in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Annan Athletic a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Spartans 55%, so Spartans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Annan Athletic and 1.9 for Spartans (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Annan Athletic are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.81 for Spartans. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Annan Athletic vs Spartans Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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