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Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Edinburgh City

PPG 0.65 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dumbarton

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.3%0-26.0%0-33.3%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.4%1-110.7%1-28.9%1-34.9%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.7%2-17.8%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.3%3-13.8%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% 19.6% 5.10 +65.2%

Draw 26.8% 23.8% 4.20 +12.6%

Away win 40.8% 66.7% 1.50 -38.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Over 3.5 38.2% 40.8% 2.45 -6.4%

BTTS 63.9% 60.6% 1.65 +5.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.9%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Edinburgh City1.5

Dumbarton1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EDINBURGH CITY · PPG 0.65

DUMBARTON · PPG 0.88

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.65), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Edinburgh City (H) 32.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +65.2%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +12.6%

Dumbarton (A) 40.8%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -38.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Edinburgh City face Dumbarton in Scotland - League Two on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Edinburgh City a 32% chance, the draw 27% and Dumbarton 41%, so Dumbarton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Edinburgh City and 1.7 for Dumbarton (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Edinburgh City are averaging 0.65 points per game versus 0.88 for Dumbarton. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +65.2%. This match finished 5-0.

Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton Prediction— Scotland - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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