League One

SCOTLAND · 16 MATCHES TRACKED · 14 APR 2026 – 2 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 16 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

56.2%

1X2

9/16

50.0%

O/U 2.5

8/16

62.5%

BTTS

10/16

56.2%

Exact score

9/16

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

57.1%

Hit rate

8/14

1.57

Avg odds

-9.9%

ROI

-1.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=7 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.61 · -31.1% ROI

HOME WIN · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.57 · +27.2% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.44 · -28.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

100%

Hit

+70.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

50%

Hit

-15.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

67%

Hit

+0.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-22.4%

ROI

Match log

16 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 5 PICKS · 2 HIT · 3 MISS

2 MAY Alloa Athletic vs Queen of South BTTS -17% 1–4 HIT 2 MAY Peterhead vs Kelty Hearts BTTS -0% 0–2 MISS 2 MAY Montrose vs Stenhousemuir BTTS -10% 0–2 MISS 2 MAY Inverness vs Hamilton BTTS -13% 2–1 HIT 2 MAY Cove Rangers vs East Fife BTTS -17% 0–0 MISS

April 2026 // 8 PICKS · 5 HIT · 3 MISS

25 APR Kelty Hearts vs Cove Rangers — NO PICK 0–2 —25 APR East Fife vs Inverness Away -6% 1–1 MISS 25 APR Hamilton vs Peterhead Home +9% 3–1 HIT 25 APR Queen of South vs Montrose Home +8% 2–2 MISS 25 APR Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic Home +1% 1–0 HIT 18 APR Alloa Athletic vs East Fife Home +30% 2–0 HIT 18 APR Peterhead vs Queen of South BTTS +5% 1–1 HIT 18 APR Montrose vs Hamilton BTTS -2% 0–2 MISS 18 APR Inverness vs Kelty Hearts Home +5% 1–0 HIT 18 APR Cove Rangers vs Stenhousemuir — NO PICK 2–0 —