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Peterhead vs Kelty Hearts Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Peterhead

PPG 1.47 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kelty Hearts

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.4%0-23.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.0%1-111.1%1-26.8%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-15.5%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.5%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 55.6% 1.80 -14.9%

Draw 27.0% 28.2% 3.55 -4.2%

Away win 25.7% 26.7% 3.75 -3.6%

Over 2.5 56.6% 56.5% 1.77 +0.2%

Over 3.5 34.3% 33.9% 2.95 +1.2%

BTTS 59.8% 59.9% 1.67 -0.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Peterhead1.7

Kelty Hearts1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PETERHEAD · PPG 1.47

KELTY HEARTS · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.47) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Peterhead (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.2%

Kelty Hearts (A) 25.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Peterhead face Kelty Hearts in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Peterhead a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Kelty Hearts 26%, so Peterhead are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Peterhead and 1.2 for Kelty Hearts (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Peterhead are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.94 for Kelty Hearts. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Peterhead vs Kelty Hearts Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions