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Inverness vs Hamilton Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Inverness

PPG 2.35 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hamilton

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.4%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-111.9%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.5%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-15.1%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 71.4% 1.40 -29.7%

Draw 28.6% 22.2% 4.50 +28.7%

Away win 21.2% 15.2% 6.60 +39.9%

Over 2.5 47.4% 64.5% 1.55 -26.5%

Over 3.5 25.7% 42.0% 2.38 -38.8%

BTTS 51.4% 58.8% 1.70 -12.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.4%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1✓ 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inverness1.6

Hamilton1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

INVERNESS · PPG 2.35

HAMILTON · PPG 1.35

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.35) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Inverness (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -29.7%

Draw 28.6%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +28.7%

Hamilton (A) 21.2%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inverness face Hamilton in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inverness a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Hamilton 21%, so Inverness are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Inverness and 1.0 for Hamilton (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inverness are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.35 for Hamilton. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Inverness vs Hamilton Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions