Inverness vs Hamilton Prediction— Scotland - League One

Scotland - League One Regular Season - 36 Tulloch Caledonian Stadium· Inverness Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Inverness PPG 2.35

2-1 HIT CS4

Hamilton PPG 1.35

Away· +39.9% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Inverness face Hamilton in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inverness a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Hamilton 21%, so Inverness are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Inverness and 1.0 for Hamilton (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inverness are averaging 2.35 points per game versus 1.35 for Hamilton. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.2%

Odds: 1.40 EV: -29.7%

Draw 28.6%

Odds: 4.50 EV: +28.7%

Away 21.2%

Odds: 6.60 EV: +39.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.4% Odds: 1.55 -26.5%

Over 3.5 25.7% Odds: 2.38 -38.8%

BTTS 51.4% Odds: 1.70 -12.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✔

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Inverness

1.60

Hamilton

0.97

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+39.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.35) vs P(Home)=50.2%