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East Fife vs Hamilton Academical Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

East Fife

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Hamilton Academical

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-111.1%0-29.8%0-35.7%0-4+3.8%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.2%2-15.6%2-24.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.1%3-11.9%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.4% 28.6% 3.50 -10.9%

Draw 22.1% 29.9% 3.35 -15.6%

Away win 54.4% 51.3% 1.95 +6.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.8% 1.93 +4.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.9% 3.35 +5.9%

BTTS 53.0% 57.8% 1.73 -8.3%

Home O1.5 30.6% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Away O1.5 48.5% 51.3% 1.95 -5.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob53.0%

A 54% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

East Fife1.0

Hamilton Academical1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

EAST FIFE · PPG 1.60

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL · PPG 1.67

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.76 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

East Fife (H) 23.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.9%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -15.6%

Hamilton Academical (A) 54.4%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

East Fife face Hamilton Academical in Scotland - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Fife a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Hamilton Academical 54%, so Hamilton Academical are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for East Fife and 1.8 for Hamilton Academical (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Fife are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.67 for Hamilton Academical. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-0.

East Fife vs Hamilton Academical Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions