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Montrose vs Queen of the South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Montrose

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

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2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Queen of the South

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.0%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.4%1-27.6%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.6%3-15.2%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 46.5% 2.15 +0.8%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 29.6% 32.3% 3.10 -4.9%

Over 2.5 62.0% 58.8% 1.70 +5.4%

Over 3.5 38.8% 38.2% 2.62 +1.7%

BTTS 60.8% 61.7% 1.62 -1.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 52.4% 1.91 -6.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montrose1.7

Queen of the South1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTROSE · PPG 1.47

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Montrose (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +0.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Queen of the South (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montrose face Queen of the South in Scotland - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montrose a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Queen of the South 30%, so Montrose are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Montrose and 1.4 for Queen of the South (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montrose are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.16 for Queen of the South. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Montrose vs Queen of the South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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