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Queen of the South vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Queen of the South

PPG 1.34 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alloa Athletic

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.4%0-27.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.5%2-17.3%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.1%3-12.7%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 38.5% 2.60 -20.4%

Draw 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Away win 43.1% 40.8% 2.45 +5.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 51.9% 61.7% 1.62 -15.9%

Home O1.5 30.6% 43.5% 2.30 -29.6%

Away O1.5 41.2% 45.5% 2.20 -9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.9%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.6%

#5 0–2✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Queen of the South1.1

Alloa Athletic1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH · PPG 1.34

ALLOA ATHLETIC · PPG 1.13

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.20, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Queen of the South (H) 30.6%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -20.4%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Alloa Athletic (A) 43.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Queen of the South face Alloa Athletic in Scotland - League One on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Queen of the South a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Alloa Athletic 43%, so Alloa Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Queen of the South and 1.3 for Alloa Athletic (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Queen of the South are averaging 1.34 points per game versus 1.13 for Alloa Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 0-2.

Queen of the South vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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