Today / Scotland - League One / Alloa Athletic vs Queen of South

Alloa Athletic vs Queen of South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Alloa Athletic

PPG 1.76 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Queen of South

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.4%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

Draw 29.7% 29.4% 3.40 +1.0%

Away win 26.6% 34.7% 2.88 -23.4%

Over 2.5 47.5% 58.8% 1.70 -19.3%

Over 3.5 25.8% 36.4% 2.75 -29.0%

BTTS 53.3% 64.5% 1.55 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alloa Athletic1.5

Queen of South1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ALLOA ATHLETIC · PPG 1.76

QUEEN OF SOUTH · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Alloa Athletic (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.0%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +1.0%

Queen of South (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alloa Athletic face Queen of South in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alloa Athletic a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Queen of South 27%, so Alloa Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alloa Athletic and 1.1 for Queen of South (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alloa Athletic are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.24 for Queen of South. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Alloa Athletic vs Queen of South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions