Alloa Athletic vs Queen of South Prediction— Scotland - League One

Scotland - League One Regular Season - 36 Recreation Park· Alloa Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Alloa Athletic PPG 1.76

1-4 MISS

Queen of South PPG 1.24

Draw· +1.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alloa Athletic face Queen of South in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alloa Athletic a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Queen of South 27%, so Alloa Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Alloa Athletic and 1.1 for Queen of South (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alloa Athletic are averaging 1.76 points per game versus 1.24 for Queen of South. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 1-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.7%

Odds: 2.15 EV: -6.0%

Draw 29.7%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +1.0%

Away 26.6%

Odds: 2.88 EV: -23.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.5% Odds: 1.70 -19.3%

Over 3.5 25.8% Odds: 2.75 -29.0%

BTTS 53.3% Odds: 1.55 -17.4%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Alloa Athletic

1.47

Queen of South

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -17.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -17.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+1.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.76) > Away AVERAGE (1.24)