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Kelty Hearts vs Cove Rangers Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Kelty Hearts

PPG 0.59 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Cove Rangers

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-112.6%0-28.2%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.0%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.2%2-16.7%2-24.4%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.8%3-12.3%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.5% 33.9% 2.95 -13.0%

Draw 27.8% 29.9% 3.35 -6.9%

Away win 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 2.5 41.3% 54.1% 1.85 -23.6%

Over 3.5 20.8% 31.3% 3.20 -33.4%

BTTS 46.9% 59.9% 1.67 -21.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob46.9%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 12.6%

#3 1–0 10.0%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kelty Hearts1.0

Cove Rangers1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KELTY HEARTS · PPG 0.59

COVE RANGERS · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.59) vs Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Kelty Hearts (H) 29.5%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -13.0%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.9%

Cove Rangers (A) 42.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kelty Hearts face Cove Rangers in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kelty Hearts a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Cove Rangers 43%, so Cove Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Kelty Hearts and 1.3 for Cove Rangers (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kelty Hearts are averaging 0.59 points per game versus 0.94 for Cove Rangers. This match finished 0-2.

Kelty Hearts vs Cove Rangers Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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