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Alloa Athletic vs Peterhead Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Alloa Athletic

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Peterhead

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.2%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.5%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-15.0%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 52.4% 1.91 +2.2%

Draw 24.6% 30.3% 3.30 -11.3%

Away win 21.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 49.2% 57.1% 1.75 -13.9%

Home O1.5 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Away O1.5 23.1% 30.8% 3.25 -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1✓ 11.5%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alloa Athletic1.6

Peterhead0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ALLOA ATHLETIC · PPG 1.72

PETERHEAD · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Alloa Athletic (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +2.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.3%

Peterhead (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alloa Athletic face Peterhead in Scotland - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alloa Athletic a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Peterhead 22%, so Alloa Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Alloa Athletic and 0.8 for Peterhead (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alloa Athletic are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.27 for Peterhead. This match finished 1-1.

Alloa Athletic vs Peterhead Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions