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Hamilton Academical vs Cove Rangers Prediction— Scotland - League One

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Hamilton Academical

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cove Rangers

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-15.3%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-110.1%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.0%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.7% 63.7% 1.57 -6.3%

Draw 23.7% 25.0% 4.00 -3.1%

Away win 16.6% 20.8% 4.80 -12.2%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 30.3% 38.2% 2.62 -20.6%

BTTS 48.6% 57.8% 1.73 -15.9%

Home O1.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 7.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 60% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0✓ 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton Academical1.9

Cove Rangers0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL · PPG 2.11

COVE RANGERS · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton Academical (H) 59.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -6.3%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.1%

Cove Rangers (A) 16.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton Academical face Cove Rangers in Scotland - League One on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton Academical a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Cove Rangers 17%, so Hamilton Academical are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Hamilton Academical and 0.7 for Cove Rangers (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton Academical are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.87 for Cove Rangers. This match finished 1-0.

Hamilton Academical vs Cove Rangers Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions