Today / Scotland - League One / Hamilton vs Peterhead

Hamilton vs Peterhead Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Hamilton

PPG 1.71 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Peterhead

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.4%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-18.1%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.7%2-19.6%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-17.6%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-17.8%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 64.5% 1.55 +8.6%

Draw 17.4% 26.3% 3.80 -33.9%

Away win 12.5% 19.6% 5.10 -36.3%

Over 2.5 63.3% 60.6% 1.65 +4.4%

Over 3.5 41.2% 38.5% 2.60 +7.1%

BTTS 53.6% 60.6% 1.65 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.6%

H 70% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 1–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamilton2.4

Peterhead0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 41.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMILTON · PPG 1.71

PETERHEAD · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Hamilton (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +8.6%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -33.9%

Peterhead (A) 12.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamilton face Peterhead in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamilton a 70% chance, the draw 17% and Peterhead 13%, so Hamilton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Hamilton and 0.9 for Peterhead (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamilton are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.06 for Peterhead. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Hamilton vs Peterhead Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - League One Predictions