Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Scotland - League One Regular Season - 35 Ochilview Park· Stenhousemuir Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Stenhousemuir PPG 2.00

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Alloa Athletic PPG 1.35

Home· +0.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenhousemuir face Alloa Athletic in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenhousemuir a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Alloa Athletic 19%, so Stenhousemuir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stenhousemuir and 0.7 for Alloa Athletic (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenhousemuir are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.35 for Alloa Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.8%

Odds: 1.91 EV: +0.9%

Draw 28.4%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -4.9%

Away 18.8%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -33.3%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 32.8% Odds: 1.85 -39.3%

Over 3.5 14.6% Odds: 3.20 -53.3%

BTTS 36.3% Odds: 1.70 -38.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stenhousemuir

1.34

Alloa Athletic

0.68

Model SuggestionHome +0.9% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)