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Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Stenhousemuir

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alloa Athletic

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-19.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-112.1%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.1%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.4%3-13.6%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 52.4% 1.91 +0.9%

Draw 28.4% 29.9% 3.35 -4.9%

Away win 18.8% 28.2% 3.55 -33.3%

Over 2.5 32.8% 54.1% 1.85 -39.3%

Over 3.5 14.6% 31.3% 3.20 -53.3%

BTTS 36.3% 58.8% 1.70 -38.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob36.3%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.8%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stenhousemuir1.3

Alloa Athletic0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STENHOUSEMUIR · PPG 2.00

ALLOA ATHLETIC · PPG 1.35

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.35)

Win probability 1X2

Stenhousemuir (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.9%

Alloa Athletic (A) 18.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -33.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stenhousemuir face Alloa Athletic in Scotland - League One on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stenhousemuir a 53% chance, the draw 28% and Alloa Athletic 19%, so Stenhousemuir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Stenhousemuir and 0.7 for Alloa Athletic (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stenhousemuir are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.35 for Alloa Athletic. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Stenhousemuir vs Alloa Athletic Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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