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Montrose vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - League One

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 14:00

Montrose

PPG 1.53 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stenhousemuir

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.0%0-28.2%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.2%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.6%2-16.8%2-25.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 23.1% 4.33 +14.8%

Draw 29.5% 26.0% 3.85 +13.6%

Away win 44.1% 61.0% 1.64 -27.7%

Over 2.5 48.4% 58.8% 1.70 -17.7%

Over 3.5 26.6% 36.4% 2.75 -26.9%

BTTS 54.0% 59.9% 1.67 -9.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.0%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 1–2 9.2%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 0–2✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montrose1.1

Stenhousemuir1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTROSE · PPG 1.53

STENHOUSEMUIR · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Montrose (H) 26.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +14.8%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +13.6%

Stenhousemuir (A) 44.1%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -27.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montrose face Stenhousemuir in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montrose a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Stenhousemuir 44%, so Stenhousemuir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Montrose and 1.5 for Stenhousemuir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montrose are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.59 for Stenhousemuir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Montrose vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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