Montrose vs Stenhousemuir Prediction— Scotland - League One

Scotland - League One Regular Season - 36 Links Park· Montrose Saturday, May 2, 2026 14:00

Montrose PPG 1.53

0-2 HIT CS5

Stenhousemuir PPG 1.59

Home· +14.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Montrose face Stenhousemuir in Scotland - League One on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montrose a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Stenhousemuir 44%, so Stenhousemuir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Montrose and 1.5 for Stenhousemuir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montrose are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.59 for Stenhousemuir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 26.5%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +14.8%

Draw 29.5%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +13.6%

Away 44.1%

Odds: 1.64 EV: -27.7%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.4% Odds: 1.70 -17.7%

Over 3.5 26.6% Odds: 2.75 -26.9%

BTTS 54.0% Odds: 1.67 -9.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 0-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Montrose

1.12

Stenhousemuir

1.49

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -9.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+14.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.53), Away GOOD (1.59)