Division 1

SAUDI ARABIA · 49 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 14 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 46 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

63.0%

1X2

29/46

67.4%

O/U 2.5

31/46

50.0%

BTTS

23/46

50.0%

Exact score

23/46

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

65.9%

Hit rate

29/44

1.57

Avg odds

+1.1%

ROI

+0.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=17 58.8% HIT · AVG 1.63 · -4.8% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=12 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +4.2% ROI

HOME WIN · N=8 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.44 · +8.1% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.52 · +1.7% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

83%

Hit

+19.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

60%

Hit

+6.4%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

68%

Hit

+3.2%

ROI

Match log

46 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS

14 MAY Al Wahda vs Al Jabalain Over 2.5 -6% 0–1 MISS 14 MAY Al Orubah vs Al Anwar BTTS -16% 3–1 HIT 14 MAY Al Faisaly vs Al Batin Home -23% 4–0 HIT 14 MAY Al Ula vs Al Zulfi Home -20% 4–2 HIT 14 MAY Al Diraiyah vs Al Bukayriyah Over 2.5 -20% 3–2 HIT 9 MAY Al Jandal vs Al Wahda BTTS -15% 1–2 HIT 9 MAY Al Batin vs Al Tai Over 2.5 -2% 4–1 HIT 9 MAY Abha vs Al Adalha Home 0–1 MISS 9 MAY Jeddah vs Al Orubah BTTS -13% 0–4 MISS 9 MAY Al Zulfi vs Al Raed BTTS -14% 2–2 HIT 9 MAY Al Jubail vs Al Ula Away -23% 0–2 HIT 9 MAY Al Jabalain vs Al Arabi Home -11% 4–0 HIT 9 MAY Al Bukayriyah vs Al Faisaly BTTS +3% 0–2 MISS 9 MAY Al Anwar vs Al Diraiyah Over 2.5 -13% 4–2 HIT 3 MAY Al Batin vs Al Bukayriyah BTTS -6% 0–0 MISS