Today / Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 / Al Ula vs Al Zulfi

Al Ula vs Al Zulfi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Ula

PPG 2.19 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Zulfi

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.5%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.6%1-110.4%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-14.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 65.4% 1.53 -19.7%

Draw 25.5% 25.6% 3.90 -0.3%

Away win 22.0% 19.0% 5.25 +9.3%

Over 2.5 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Over 3.5 30.7% 39.2% 2.55 -21.7%

BTTS 52.1% 60.6% 1.65 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ula1.9

Al Zulfi0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ULA · PPG 2.19

AL ZULFI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ula (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -0.3%

Al Zulfi (A) 22.0%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ula face Al Zulfi in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ula a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Al Zulfi 22%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Ula and 0.9 for Al Zulfi (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ula are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Zulfi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 4-2.

Al Ula vs Al Zulfi Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Predictions