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Al Anwar vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:55

Al Anwar

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Ula

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.0%0-27.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.9%1-111.4%1-29.3%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.4%2-17.1%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 18.2% 5.50 +37.0%

Draw 26.9% 25.3% 3.95 +3.8%

Away win 43.7% 66.7% 1.50 -34.4%

Over 2.5 51.7% 56.5% 1.77 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.9% 2.95 -7.1%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 36.5% 26.0% 3.85 +40.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 62.5% 1.60 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 0–2 7.4%

#5 0–1✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Anwar1.3

Al Ula1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ANWAR · PPG 1.52

AL ULA · PPG 1.82

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Anwar (H) 29.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +37.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +3.8%

Al Ula (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Anwar face Al Ula in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Anwar a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Al Ula 44%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Anwar and 1.6 for Al Ula (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Anwar are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.82 for Al Ula. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +64.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Anwar vs Al Ula Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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