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Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:50

Al Wehda Club

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al-Adalah

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.7%0-23.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.8%1-19.4%1-26.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.6%3-16.3%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-15.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 66.7% 1.50 -23.2%

Draw 22.0% 25.3% 3.95 -7.9%

Away win 26.8% 18.2% 5.50 +28.4%

Over 2.5 64.0% 61.7% 1.62 +3.7%

Over 3.5 42.2% 39.2% 2.55 +7.6%

BTTS 63.1% 59.9% 1.67 +5.4%

Home O1.5 55.5% 66.7% 1.50 -16.8%

Away O1.5 41.2% 29.9% 3.35 +38.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–2 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wehda Club2.0

Al-Adalah1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WEHDA CLUB · PPG 1.44

AL-ADALAH · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.62 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Wehda Club (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -23.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -7.9%

Al-Adalah (A) 26.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wehda Club face Al-Adalah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wehda Club a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Al-Adalah 27%, so Al Wehda Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Wehda Club and 1.4 for Al-Adalah (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.10 for Al-Adalah. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +45.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Al Wehda Club vs Al-Adalah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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