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Al Wahda vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 16:35

Al Wahda

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Jabalain

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.7%0-26.7%0-34.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-06.0%1-110.5%1-29.3%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.2%2-26.4%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.2% 32.3% 3.10 +9.1%

Draw 25.0% 29.4% 3.40 -9.0%

Away win 39.9% 48.8% 2.05 -18.2%

Over 2.5 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Over 3.5 38.3% 41.7% 2.40 -8.1%

BTTS 58.6% 69.0% 1.45 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.6%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Wahda1.4

Al Jabalain1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL WAHDA · PPG 1.50

AL JABALAIN · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Al Wahda (H) 35.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +9.1%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.0%

Al Jabalain (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Wahda face Al Jabalain in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Wahda a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Al Jabalain 40%, so Al Jabalain are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Wahda and 1.8 for Al Jabalain (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Wahda are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.44 for Al Jabalain. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Wahda vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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