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Al Bukayriyah vs Al-Adalah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:05

Al Bukayriyah

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DDL ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Adalah

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.7%0-24.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-09.9%1-111.9%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.2%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.9%3-14.7%3-22.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

Draw 25.9% 30.8% 3.25 -9.5%

Away win 29.2% 34.7% 2.88 -9.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.9% 3.35 +5.9%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 44.5% 45.5% 2.20 -2.1%

Away O1.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 7.6%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Bukayriyah1.5

Al-Adalah1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BUKAYRIYAH · PPG 1.29

AL-ADALAH · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Bukayriyah (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.0%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.5%

Al-Adalah (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Bukayriyah face Al-Adalah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Bukayriyah a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Al-Adalah 29%, so Al Bukayriyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Bukayriyah and 1.2 for Al-Adalah (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Bukayriyah are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.08 for Al-Adalah. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Bukayriyah vs Al-Adalah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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