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Al Ula vs Al-Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 17:40

Al Ula

PPG 2.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Al-Raed

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-16.3%0-23.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.7%1-111.1%1-26.3%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.9%3-15.7%3-23.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.7%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 66.2% 1.51 -23.1%

Draw 24.2% 25.1% 3.98 -2.2%

Away win 24.9% 20.0% 5.00 +14.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.6% 2.59 -17.9%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 63.3% 1.58 -21.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.2% 3.42 +13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ula1.8

Al-Raed1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ULA · PPG 2.15

AL-RAED · PPG 1.61

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Ula (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -23.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.98 · IMPLIED 25.1% EV -2.2%

Al-Raed (A) 24.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ula face Al-Raed in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ula a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Al-Raed 25%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Ula and 1.1 for Al-Raed (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ula are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.61 for Al-Raed. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.0%.

Al Ula vs Al-Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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