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Al Orubah vs Al Anwar Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 16:45

Al Orubah

PPG 1.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Anwar

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.1%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.6%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.6%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 48.8% 2.05 +4.1%

Draw 25.1% 28.2% 3.55 -6.5%

Away win 24.1% 33.3% 3.00 -16.6%

Over 2.5 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Over 3.5 29.7% 37.0% 2.70 -11.9%

BTTS 54.2% 64.5% 1.55 -16.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Orubah1.6

Al Anwar1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ORUBAH · PPG 1.50

AL ANWAR · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Al Orubah (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +4.1%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.5%

Al Anwar (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Orubah face Al Anwar in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Orubah a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Al Anwar 24%, so Al Orubah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Orubah and 1.1 for Al Anwar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Orubah are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.94 for Al Anwar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 3-1.

Al Orubah vs Al Anwar Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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