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Al Bukayriyah vs Al Anwar Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 16:15

Al Bukayriyah

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DDL ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Anwar

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

DL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.6%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.7%1-112.2%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.7%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 35.1% 2.85 +22.3%

Draw 24.8% 30.8% 3.25 -11.6%

Away win 32.3% 44.4% 2.25 -27.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.6% 1.90 +2.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 39.2% 2.55 +2.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 46.5% 2.15 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Bukayriyah1.4

Al Anwar1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BUKAYRIYAH · PPG 1.40

AL ANWAR · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Bukayriyah (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +22.3%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.6%

Al Anwar (A) 32.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Bukayriyah face Al Anwar in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Bukayriyah a 43% chance, the draw 25% and Al Anwar 32%, so Al Bukayriyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Bukayriyah and 1.3 for Al Anwar (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Bukayriyah are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.10 for Al Anwar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Al Bukayriyah vs Al Anwar Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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