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Al Orubah vs Al-Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:50

Al Orubah

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LDD ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Raed

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.1%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-08.6%1-111.4%1-27.5%1-33.3%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.1%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 44.4% 2.25 +3.3%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 29.4% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.6% 35.6% 2.81 +2.9%

BTTS 60.5% 62.9% 1.59 -3.8%

Home O1.5 47.4% 46.7% 2.14 +1.4%

Away O1.5 41.2% 43.5% 2.30 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Orubah1.6

Al-Raed1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ORUBAH · PPG 1.56

AL-RAED · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Orubah (H) 45.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +3.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Al-Raed (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Orubah face Al-Raed in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Orubah a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Al-Raed 29%, so Al Orubah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Orubah and 1.3 for Al-Raed (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Orubah are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Al-Raed. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Orubah vs Al-Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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