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Al-Adalah vs Al Taee Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 2 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 15:45

Al-Adalah

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

DLW ··

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Taee

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-17.0%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.8%1-111.1%1-27.9%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.3%3-14.7%3-23.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 37.0% 2.70 +17.2%

Draw 27.3% 28.6% 3.50 -2.7%

Away win 29.4% 44.4% 2.25 -20.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 57.8% 1.73 -7.4%

Over 3.5 31.7% 34.7% 2.88 -8.7%

BTTS 54.3% 62.5% 1.60 -13.1%

Home O1.5 47.9% 43.5% 2.30 +10.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 47.6% 2.10 -14.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Adalah1.6

Al Taee1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-ADALAH · PPG 1.21

AL TAEE · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.18 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Adalah (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +17.2%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -2.7%

Al Taee (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Adalah face Al Taee in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Adalah a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Al Taee 29%, so Al-Adalah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al-Adalah and 1.4 for Al Taee (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Adalah are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.44 for Al Taee. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.0%. This match finished 3-4.

Al-Adalah vs Al Taee Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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