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Al Ula vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Al Ula

PPG 1.98 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Jabalain

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.8%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.6%1-26.1%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.2%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.2%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 24.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.7% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 35.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 1–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ula1.8

Al Jabalain1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ULA · PPG 1.98

AL JABALAIN · PPG 1.46

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Ula (H) 52.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Jabalain (A) 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ula face Al Jabalain in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ula a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Al Jabalain 24%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Ula and 1.2 for Al Jabalain (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ula are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 1.46 for Al Jabalain. This match finished 3-1.

Al Ula vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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