Segunda Liga

PORTUGAL · 43 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 17 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 42 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

47.6%

1X2

20/42

45.2%

O/U 2.5

19/42

38.1%

BTTS

16/42

40.5%

Exact score

17/42

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

40.0%

Hit rate

10/25

1.79

Avg odds

-30.0%

ROI

-7.5u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=19 36.8% HIT · AVG 1.70 · -36.6% ROI

HOME WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.11 · -9.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

33%

Hit

-41.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-11.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

40%

Hit

-30.2%

ROI

Match log

42 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 5 PICKS · 3 HIT · 2 MISS

17 MAY Oliveirense vs Felgueiras — NO PICK 1–5 —17 MAY Uniao de Leiria vs Feirense BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT 17 MAY Leixoes vs Lusitania FC BTTS -0% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel — NO PICK 2–1 —17 MAY Portimonense vs Farense — NO PICK 1–0 —16 MAY Academico Viseu vs Sporting CP B — NO PICK 0–0 —16 MAY Torreense vs Vizela — NO PICK 4–0 —15 MAY FC Porto B vs Benfica B BTTS -17% 2–0 MISS 15 MAY Maritimo vs Chaves — NO PICK 1–3 —9 MAY Farense vs Pacos Ferreira — NO PICK 1–1 —9 MAY Felgueiras vs Portimonense — NO PICK 1–1 —9 MAY Feirense vs Oliveirense — NO PICK 1–2 —9 MAY Chaves vs Leixoes BTTS -8% 1–2 HIT 9 MAY Sporting CP B vs FC Porto B BTTS -15% 0–1 MISS 9 MAY Penafiel vs Maritimo — NO PICK 1–0 —