Segunda Liga

PORTUGAL · 54 MATCHES TRACKED · 13 APR 2026 – 30 AUG 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 53 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

41.5%

1X2

22/53

50.9%

O/U 2.5

27/53

39.6%

BTTS

21/53

37.7%

Exact score

20/53

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

28.6%

Hit rate

2/7

2.05

Avg odds

-48.9%

ROI

-3.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 2.25 · -54.8% ROI

BTTS · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.78 · -41.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

50%

Hit

-11.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

33%

Hit

-39.7%

ROI

Match log

53 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 4 PICKS · 1 HIT · 3 MISS

30 AUG Sporting CP B vs Farense — NO PICK 2–1 —30 AUG FC Porto B vs Penafiel BTTS -5% 0–3 MISS 30 AUG Felgueiras 1932 vs Chaves — NO PICK 2–1 —29 AUG Portimonense vs Leixoes BTTS -9% 0–2 MISS 29 AUG Torreense vs Vizela BTTS -4% 0–3 MISS 24 AUG Farense vs Felgueiras 1932 — NO PICK 1–1 —24 AUG Feirense vs FC Porto B — NO PICK 0–1 —23 AUG Penafiel vs Sporting CP B — NO PICK 2–0 —22 AUG Leixoes vs União de Leiria — NO PICK 2–4 —22 AUG Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense BTTS -6% 2–2 HIT 21 AUG Benfica B vs Portimonense — NO PICK 1–1 —

May 2026 // 2 PICKS · 2 HIT · 0 MISS

17 MAY Oliveirense vs Felgueiras — NO PICK 1–5 —17 MAY Uniao de Leiria vs Feirense BTTS -12% 2–2 HIT 17 MAY Leixoes vs Lusitania FC BTTS -0% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel — NO PICK 2–1 —