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Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 17:00

Lusitânia Lourosa

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDW ·

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torreense

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.8%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.1%1-112.1%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.8%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 32.3% 3.10 +47.3%

Draw 26.8% 31.7% 3.15 -9.3%

Away win 25.7% 45.0% 2.22 -25.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 48.8% 2.05 +2.9%

Over 3.5 29.2% 27.4% 3.65 +4.0%

BTTS 53.0% 56.5% 1.77 -6.2%

Home O1.5 43.1% 34.5% 2.90 +25.0%

Away O1.5 35.3% 43.5% 2.30 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lusitânia Lourosa1.5

Torreense1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA · PPG 1.64

TORREENSE · PPG 1.30

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lusitânia Lourosa (H) 47.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +47.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.3%

Torreense (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lusitânia Lourosa face Torreense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lusitânia Lourosa a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Torreense 26%, so Lusitânia Lourosa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 1.1 for Torreense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lusitânia Lourosa are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.30 for Torreense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Lusitânia Lourosa vs Torreense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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