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Oliveirense vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Oliveirense

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

Felgueiras

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.0%0-25.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.8%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.8%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 34.7% 2.88 +17.8%

Draw 32.4% 30.3% 3.30 +6.9%

Away win 26.7% 43.9% 2.28 -23.5%

Over 2.5 44.4% 51.3% 1.95 -13.4%

Over 3.5 14.6% 29.4% 3.40 -30.2%

BTTS 48.6% 58.8% 1.70 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.3%

#3 1–0 14.8%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oliveirense1.1

Felgueiras0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 14.6%

Form & verdict PPG

OLIVEIRENSE · PPG 1.38

FELGUEIRAS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Oliveirense (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +17.8%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.9%

Felgueiras (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oliveirense face Felgueiras in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oliveirense a 41% chance, the draw 32% and Felgueiras 27%, so Oliveirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Oliveirense and 0.9 for Felgueiras (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oliveirense are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Felgueiras. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.8%. This match finished 1-5.

Oliveirense vs Felgueiras Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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