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FC Porto B vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

FC Porto B

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWL ·

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Penafiel

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.6%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-18.0%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 35.7% 2.80 +1.6%

Draw 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Away win 36.2% 42.0% 2.38 -13.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 33.5% 36.4% 2.75 -7.9%

Away O1.5 34.2% 40.8% 2.45 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto B1.2

Penafiel1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO B · PPG 1.46

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto B (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Penafiel (A) 36.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto B face Penafiel in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto B a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Penafiel 36%, so FC Porto B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Porto B and 1.2 for Penafiel (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto B are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.08 for Penafiel. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +9.0%. This match finished 0-3.

FC Porto B vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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