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Benfica B vs Portimonense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 17:00

Benfica B

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Portimonense

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-110.6%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 54.9% 1.82 -27.8%

Draw 30.6% 29.0% 3.45 +5.6%

Away win 29.7% 25.0% 4.00 +11.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 54.1% 1.85 -21.0%

Over 3.5 24.0% 32.3% 3.10 -15.4%

BTTS 47.9% 58.8% 1.70 -18.6%

Home O1.5 34.9% 54.1% 1.85 -35.4%

Away O1.5 31.3% 31.3% 3.20 +0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.9%

H 40% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.5%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica B1.2

Portimonense1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA B · PPG 1.73

PORTIMONENSE · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.25 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Benfica B (H) 39.7%

ODDS 1.82 · IMPLIED 54.9% EV -27.8%

Draw 30.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +5.6%

Portimonense (A) 29.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica B face Portimonense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica B a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Portimonense 30%, so Benfica B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Benfica B and 1.0 for Portimonense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica B are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.58 for Portimonense. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Benfica B vs Portimonense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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