Today / Portugal - Segunda Liga / Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel

Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 19:30

Pacos Ferreira

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Penafiel

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-112.8%0-26.9%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.6%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.6%2-17.1%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.3%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 59.5% 1.68 -40.0%

Draw 28.9% 27.0% 3.70 +4.2%

Away win 35.4% 22.5% 4.45 +57.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 56.5% 1.77 -18.2%

Over 3.5 16.5% 33.9% 2.95 -30.8%

BTTS 49.2% 58.8% 1.70 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 12.6%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pacos Ferreira1.1

Penafiel1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PACOS FERREIRA · PPG 1.38

PENAFIEL · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Pacos Ferreira (H) 35.7%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -40.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.2%

Penafiel (A) 35.4%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +57.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pacos Ferreira face Penafiel in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pacos Ferreira a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Penafiel 35%, so Pacos Ferreira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Pacos Ferreira and 1.1 for Penafiel (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pacos Ferreira are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.94 for Penafiel. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Pacos Ferreira vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions