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Sporting CP B vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 17:00

Sporting CP B

PPG 1.61 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLW ·

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Farense

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-111.6%0-26.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.7%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.3%2-17.7%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.8%3-12.9%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 39.4% 2.54 -7.5%

Draw 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Away win 35.9% 37.0% 2.70 -3.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 49.3% 54.6% 1.83 -9.8%

Home O1.5 31.1% 37.7% 2.65 -17.6%

Away O1.5 32.6% 35.7% 2.80 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.3%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 1–2 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP B1.1

Farense1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP B · PPG 1.61

FARENSE · PPG 1.66

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.10, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP B (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -7.5%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Farense (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP B face Farense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP B a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Farense 36%, so Sporting CP B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sporting CP B and 1.1 for Farense (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP B are averaging 1.61 points per game versus 1.66 for Farense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Sporting CP B vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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