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Leixoes vs União de Leiria Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 10:00

Leixoes

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLW ·

2 – 4

FULL TIME

União de Leiria

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWW ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.2%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.4%1-112.7%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-18.8%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-14.0%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 43.1% 2.32 +2.5%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -7.2%

Away win 28.3% 34.5% 2.90 -10.8%

Over 2.5 49.5% 52.6% 1.90 -5.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

BTTS 50.5% 60.6% 1.65 -16.7%

Home O1.5 38.3% 45.5% 2.20 -15.7%

Away O1.5 35.6% 39.2% 2.55 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.5%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leixoes1.4

União de Leiria1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LEIXOES · PPG 1.73

UNIÃO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.50 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Leixoes (H) 44.2%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV +2.5%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.2%

União de Leiria (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leixoes face União de Leiria in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leixoes a 44% chance, the draw 28% and União de Leiria 28%, so Leixoes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Leixoes and 1.1 for União de Leiria (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leixoes are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.17 for União de Leiria. This match finished 2-4.

Leixoes vs União de Leiria Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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