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Uniao de Leiria vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:30

Uniao de Leiria

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Feirense

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.6%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.5%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.1%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.2%3-14.4%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -2.1%

Away win 24.8% 23.8% 4.20 +2.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Over 3.5 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uniao de Leiria1.5

Feirense1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIAO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.63

FEIRENSE · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Uniao de Leiria (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -16.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.1%

Feirense (A) 24.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uniao de Leiria face Feirense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uniao de Leiria a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Feirense 25%, so Uniao de Leiria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Uniao de Leiria and 1.1 for Feirense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uniao de Leiria are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.31 for Feirense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Uniao de Leiria vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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