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Portimonense vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 10:00

Portimonense

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leixoes

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.3%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.6%1-112.4%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.2%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.6%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 34.2% 2.92 +44.8%

Draw 26.5% 30.8% 3.25 -8.3%

Away win 23.9% 43.9% 2.28 -27.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.6% 3.50 +0.3%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 36.4% 2.75 +10.3%

Away O1.5 28.8% 43.5% 2.30 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 50% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portimonense1.5

Leixoes1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTIMONENSE · PPG 1.58

LEIXOES · PPG 1.23

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portimonense (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +44.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.3%

Leixoes (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portimonense face Leixoes in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portimonense a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Leixoes 24%, so Portimonense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Portimonense and 1.0 for Leixoes (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portimonense are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.23 for Leixoes. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Portimonense vs Leixoes Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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